Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 1006.146911 1153.688850 1323.066426 1533.637156 1790.839226 2097.982591 2.497407e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 804.453511 991.322532 1228.088930 1556.779615 2012.411957 2639.551898 3.601900e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 710.657217 914.293233 1188.329195 1596.493569 2212.262722 3149.319889 4.779042e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 630.933894 839.015880 1132.490448 1594.998915 2343.575751 3586.250954 6.010052e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 561.133344 765.179129 1063.532045 1555.091153 2397.280044 3901.170541 7.146299e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 519.579621 725.776601 1037.987172 1575.457776 2550.969162 4431.246541 8.964912e+03
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 470.373724 668.643918 976.639063 1524.514158 2563.669245 4690.728202 1.031047e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 431.689836 623.454628 928.381114 1487.491315 2592.896033 4991.073467 1.193899e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 397.877838 582.570485 882.295645 1446.795058 2605.307758 5257.141937 1.365078e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 387.259139 577.851526 896.015786 1518.280311 2865.679524 6204.302831 1.833053e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 373.327342 566.146429 895.961891 1562.680195 3077.334601 7116.174995 2.391217e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 360.990349 555.882531 897.072677 1609.186222 3305.546883 8180.634319 3.166618e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 336.443377 524.477373 859.881033 1578.441503 3359.121522 8816.287551 3.888666e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 320.573961 507.308346 848.173469 1602.668059 3568.944525 10127.124436 5.382616e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 308.432141 495.424509 844.722027 1643.894365 3838.185171 11855.308565 7.869156e+04
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 292.967447 476.072919 824.339788 1642.352782 3985.352078 13227.025100 1.079673e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 275.156790 450.918694 789.658693 1600.876050 3999.320434 14036.634867 1.364352e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 264.813574 439.013619 780.898820 1622.040965 4223.138916 16091.262621 2.074055e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 248.893971 415.275360 745.137445 1569.108640 4183.275317 16733.342228 2.592051e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 235.546942 395.644357 716.429867 1530.654303 4185.518696 17658.576698 3.403207e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 222.975414 376.739348 687.729983 1488.397921 4164.020028 18453.755010 4.431575e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 220.340971 377.208511 701.197919 1562.632981 4609.123376 22994.160392 1.028316e+06
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 215.646756 373.190063 704.283003 1608.762463 4967.208812 27603.205175 2.559314e+06